You're hearing it from everyone, everywhere you go, Winter 2012 will be ugly, cold and packed with more snow than we've seen in 20 years or so!  I'm no meteorologist, but I have my doubts.  Why?  Because I hear this every single year!  Take last year for example, it was steaming hot in Texas and the rumors wouldn't stop, a brutal Winter was on the way!  Well, the season came and went like a thief in the night, and we saw very little action here in Amarillo.  Is history doomed to repeat itself, or is 2012-2013 destined to be a horrible Winter?

Well, since I'm not an expert, I say, let's turn to the experts for some answers, and let's ask some real questions.

After a visit to, I got a little insight given by long range expert, Joe Bastardi.

Joe says there isn't just a chance for a bad Winter, but there is a significant chance that 2012-2013's Winter will be exceptionally frigid.


"While the most consistent of the cold is to the north, severe bouts of cold deep into Texas and Florida would be capable of affecting agriculture more so than we've seen in that last 20 years or so."

What!?!  Snow in Florida and deep south Texas!?!  WOW!

Okay before we start buying into this prediction Joe made, let's look at what has led him to it.

If I'm reading it correctly, and I'm pretty sure I am, Joe is utilizing historical data to make this prediction.  Comparing factors that are strikingly similar to what's happened in the past, and what it led to in the near future.


He said, "We have a cold Pacific now. We had a La Nina, El Nino, then a stronger La Nina [similar to the cycle] that happened in the early to mid '70s that set up the winters of the late '70s."

Joe has taken these historical weather patterns and factoring in "wild cards" of volcanic and solar activity to look ahead to our future weather patterns.

Joe Bastardi says:

"The last time we had arctic volcanoes go off, in 1912 - similar to what we had two winters ago - the winters three years removed got very bad across the United States,"

"If we put together the combination of La Nina, El Nino, La Nina again and we look at what happened when that happened before with a cold Pacific, and we also understand that the volcanoes may be involved along with the low sunspot activity, one could come to the conclusion that a series of very cold winters... could be on the way."

I realize that's a lot of information and it's kind of hard to understand, so allow me to simplify all this and kind of sum it up for you.

Joe sees this all as part of a natural pattern of reversal that he thinks will lead to a crash in global temperatures over the next nine months, from the very warm levels set off by El Nino.

Clear as mud?  Good!

Look here's the fact, when it comes to Winter, you should always expect the worse and hope for the best!  Get your vehicles ready for some seriously nasty weather, and pray to God that this prediction falls the way they have in the past few years, unless you want to spend a lot of time fighting through blistering cold wind that cuts clean through your clothes, and road conditions that nobody has any business driving in.

In my opinion, we've all lived here for a while and we kind of have an idea of what our weather patterns look like, so what do you think will happen?

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